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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 July 15
LACK OF FRESH BUSINESS IN THE PACIFIC LEFT CAPESIZE RATES MOVING SIDEWAYS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Intermodal ship broker says in its weekly report that, a different picture from what we saw the previous week was painted during the ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
RIO TINTO'S MODERNISED KITIMAT SMELTER BEGINS PRODUCTION; KITIMAT BECOMING ONE OF THE LOWEST COST SMELTERS IN THE WORLD
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto is preparing its first shipments of metal from its world-class Kitimat aluminium smelter in Canada following an extensive m ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
Q3'15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.14% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ADVANCED MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.28 per MT (-0.61%) month over month to US$ 45.85 per mt. The swap wa ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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