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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 July 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED ISSUED A TENDER FOR 250K MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 250K Metric Tons (MT) of 5300 kcal/kg NAR coal ...
Monday, 06 July 15
COAL TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT TRAINING COURSE
Are you ready to invest in yourself and take your trading and risk management strategy to the next level? The Coal Trading & Risk Management Tr ...
Monday, 06 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP; DECLINED D-O-D,W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.53 (1.01%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 05 July 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WAS DOWN 18%; PANAMAX UP 9%
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft during this week. However indices closed slightly firmer end of the week on 3rd July.
The BDI was do ...
Friday, 03 July 15
U.S DELIVERS WEAK FIRST HALF COAL PRODUCTION; 8.8% LOWER Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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