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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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