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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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