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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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