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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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