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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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