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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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