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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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