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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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