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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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