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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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