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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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