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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES KEPT RALLYING LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Strong Capesize performance kept supporting the Dry Bulk market last week, which noted another positive weekly closing, while rates f ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FALLING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET: WITHOUT A DOUBT REACHED HEALTHIER LEVEL
A few weeks before the end of the summer season, the BDI is hovering around 1,200 points, providing some much needed optimism to all Dry Bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
REGULATION CURBS POWER OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MINING SECTOR IN INDONESIA - FLORENCE G. SANTOSO
The Indonesian Government appears to be getting serious about stripping Regents of the authority to issue mining licenses. The Government took the ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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