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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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