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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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