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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; DECLINED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: LOST W-O-W; GAIN M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and decreased week over week.
The Q3 swap h ...
Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from t ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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