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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.18 (2.27%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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