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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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