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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, w ...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
CHINA'S ENERGY COMMODITY IMPORTS DIVERGING - RICHARD SCOTT | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Energy commodity imports into China have grown enormously over the past decade, boosting global demand for shipping capacity. But a dramatic change ...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS EXTEND LOSS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week. The swaps was lost 0.70%.
...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
Q4'15 FOB RBCT COAL SWAP DECLINES NEARLY 3.13 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 20 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SEE FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.32 per MT (-2.89%) month over month to US$ 44.43 per mt. The swap ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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