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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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