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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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