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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 30 March 15
Q3' 15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED 8.7% M-M; 12.77% Y-TO-D
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.00 (-8.70%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.33 (-2 ...
Monday, 30 March 15
Q2' FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.47% HIGHER THAN Q4' CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.42 per MT (-10.43%) month over month and US$ 1.60 (-3.32%) w ...
Sunday, 29 March 15
INDO - INDIA: SUPRAMAX & PANAMAX FREIGHT MARKET STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market was almost stable as all segments slightly up except Panamax sector.
The BDI was up by just 0.85% week over w ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
IS NORTHERN EUROPE THE NEW MINING ELDORADO?
The Europe Mining 2015 Summit, organised by Global Summits organizer IRN on 17-18 June in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, will gather senior level repr ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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