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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Wednesday, 01 April 15
SUPRAMAX & HANDY: RATES HELD STEADY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
“Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market closed off on the green last week, sentiment didn't improve by any means, not only because of ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that we are still witnessing a very challenging and at the same time very uncertain market, both with respect to dry chartering a ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
Q4' 15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.15 W/E 27 MARCH 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 drops month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap declined US$ 1.54 (3.24%) mo ...
Tuesday, 31 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month but increased week on week.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 30 March 15
WORST IS OVER FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, BUT THE PAIN WILL REMAIN FOR YEARS TO COME, SAYS BIMCO CHIEF ANALYST - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current demise of the dry bulk market isn’t one to go away anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that it can’t improve, with all sh ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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