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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
Monday, 11 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED MOM AND WOW
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.46 (-0.90%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.28 (0. ...
Monday, 11 May 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 140K MT OF 4600 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender to buy total 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of Sub-bitumi ...
Sunday, 10 May 15
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to soft week over week except for the Cape Index which was up 7.32%. Cape index was closed at 616 p ...
Friday, 08 May 15
BUSIEST CAPESIZE DEMOLITION MARKET EVER - BIMCO
The activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 when looking at dry bulk tonnage.
The dry bulk market has long suffered f ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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