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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 18 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SCORE MONTHLY GAINS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.87 per MT (1.99%) month over month and lost US$ 0.03 week on w ...
Monday, 18 May 15
Q1' 16 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3' 15 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.05 (2.10%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.53 (1.05%) pe ...
Sunday, 17 May 15
INDONESIA - INDIA FREIGHTS RATES EXPECTED TO FLAT TO SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 10.45% and closed at 634 points week on week, while the Cape index saws big jump or up almost 55% for the same peri ...
Friday, 15 May 15
DRY BULK AND CONTAINER SHIPPING TO REMAIN WEAK, OUTLOOK FOR PORTS AND TANKERS POSITIVE - DREWRY MARITIME EQUITY RESEARCH
Global economy is in a gradual recovery mode, sending mixed signals to investors. Chinese economic data continues to remain weak as economy transit ...
Friday, 15 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN U.S DOWN 1.4 MILLION TONS FOR THE WEEK ENDING MAY 8
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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