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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Wednesday, 13 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The EU governments in an effort to face their economic crisis individually are facing lack of political cohesion. This reflects back to each econom ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; DECLINED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: LOST W-O-W; GAIN M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and decreased week over week.
The Q3 swap h ...
Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from t ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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