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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
Friday, 22 May 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 16 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE ACHIEVED ITS BEST EVER TOTAL COAL EXPORT TURNOVER OF 159 MILLION TONS IN 2014
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $900 million ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
ATLANTIC PANAMAX MARKET STARTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest o ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
LOWER PRICES SEEN IN NEWBUILDING MARKET ON LOW DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Cash-rich ship owners, or at least, owners with substantial access to financing will be among the prime candidates, who will reap the benefits of t ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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