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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 27 September 14
MORE COAL MINERS AGREE TO AMEND CONTRACTS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is in a rush to beat a deadline for the conclusion of numerous memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with t ...
Friday, 26 September 14
INDIA SUPREME COURT RULING TO HIT STEEL, UTILITY EARNINGS, SAYS FITCH
COALspot.com: The 24 September Supreme Court of India (SCI) decision to cancel almost every coal block allocation since 1993 will have a negative f ...
Friday, 26 September 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.8% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.80 million short tons (mmst) of c ...
Friday, 26 September 14
ORACLE SIGNS EPC FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT WITH SEPCO FOR COAL MINE AND POWER PLANT IN PAKISTAN
COALspot.com: Oracle Coalfields PLC, the UK developer of a lignite coal mine and power plant in the south-eastern Sindh Province, Pakistan, has ann ...
Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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