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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX
COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX i ...
Monday, 24 November 14
Q1 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.73
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.73 on 21 November after losing US$ 0.40 (-0.75%) month ove ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: Q2' 15 COAL SWAPS CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 0.63 (-0.99%) month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0.19%) da ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
SPOT FREIGHT RATES IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 5.41 pct week on week and closed at 1,324 points on Friday. All the segments were up this week except Panamax index.&n ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DROP BY 11% IN 2014 - ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: Italy’s steam coal imports expected to drop to 16 million tons in 2014 (-11% compared to 2013); coking coal imports to plunge t ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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