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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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