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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 28 November 14
NEW BIMCO CLAUSE AIMS TO REDUCE SUPPLIERS' RELIANCE ON SHIP ARREST FOR CHARTERERS' UNPAID BUNKERS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Ship owners can, on occasion, find themselves in the invidious position of suffering unexpected loss of hire due to a tim ...
Friday, 28 November 14
JSW ENERGY AND GRM RESOURCES JOIN GLOBALCOAL
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced yesterday that two new Market Members have joined its online coal trading platform. According globaCOAL&rsq ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
MINING SERVICES TAX SPIKED BY 233% - BISNIS INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Energy and Mineral Resources Department of Indonesia said the tax contribution from mining services sector in the 3rd Q 2014 ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
PANAMAX : EXPECTATION'S FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RUSH, DISAPPEAR DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
“We have experienced a firming market the last couple of weeks. More activity from cargo owners in the Atlantic and less available to ...
Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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