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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 02 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has lost U ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q1' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 49.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.4 ...
Monday, 01 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 52.50
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.50 on 28 November after losing US$ 1.20 (-2.23%) month ove ...
Monday, 01 December 14
Q2' 15 DELIVERY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED 0.42% LOWER THAN Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.45 (-3.78%) month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1.06%) we ...
Sunday, 30 November 14
SUPRAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA : FIRM
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 171 points and closed at 1153 points on Friday 28 November 2014. The Cape index also lost 887 points and closed at 2151 ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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