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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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