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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
Monday, 23 March 15
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE: GROWTH +5% - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Sunday, 22 March 15
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO RISE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this week as all the segments increased after many weeks of weak trend.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ...
Friday, 20 March 15
HARD COAL MARKET 2014: DESPITE THE ENERGY TURNAROUND, HARD COAL IMPORTS TO GERMANY RISE BY MORE THAN 6% (PART 1)
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Friday, 20 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 5.9% INCREASE WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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