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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 December 14
SHIPOWNERS ARE FINALIZING MORE DEALS AS YEAR END COMES CLOSER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
With the 2014 year just a few days before waving goodbye, shipowners are looking to close their pending deals in both the newbuilding and S&P m ...
Monday, 22 December 14
Q2'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 0.30 LOWER THAN Q1'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.67 (-5.81%) month over month and US$ 0.35 (-0.58%) ...
Monday, 22 December 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ARE HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.71 per MT (-3.24%) and closed at US$ 51.02 on 19 December month ...
Sunday, 21 December 14
PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA FALLS FURTHER
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index lost heavily week on week.
The BDI was down 6.95 percent week over week and closed at 8 ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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