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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
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