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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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