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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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