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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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