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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 February 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUALLY DIPPED IN RED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index continues its decline and fell 5.18 pct to 530 points week on week due to falling commodity prices and declining ...
Saturday, 14 February 15
SHALE GAS AND TIGHT OIL ARE COMMERCIALLY PRODUCED IN JUST FOUR COUNTRIES - EIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The United States, Canada, China, and Argentina are currently the only four countries in the world that are producing com ...
Friday, 13 February 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 10% DECLINE
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 February 15
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED SHIP OWNERS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MARKET ON CRASHING DRY BULK MARKET AND EUROZONE CRISIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Financing issues have started to tighten the noose in the throats of small and medium-size ship owners, who were already facing problems over the p ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
CAPESIZE: THE BEST DESCRIPTION FOR THE MARKET IS, FLAT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The handy and supra market is also being affected by the marginal volume of activity in the commodity sales. We see a small upturn in the T ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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