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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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