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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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