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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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