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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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