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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly de ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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