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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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