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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
Sunday, 18 January 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 4.51 pct week on week on Friday 16, January 2015. The BDI closed at 741 points on this Friday after gaining arou ...
Friday, 16 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.3% W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUE ON LOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Although for some specific trades we can see premiums being ach ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
LOW CASH COSTS, GOOD LIQUIDITY HELP ASIAN OIL COMPANIES IN PRICE ROUT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that rated oil and gas production companies in Asia can comfortably operate under low oil prices for some time given their gener ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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