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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
DRY BULK MARKET NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY DECLINE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry bulk market noted another weekly decline on Friday, with the performance of the Capesize market still weighing down on the re ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last s ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
COMMODITIES AREN'T PRIMED FOR A REBOUND DURING 2015: SHIPPING COULD BENEFIT FROM LOWER PRICES - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In the recent past, higher commodity prices were driven by an increase in demand from developing countries, which spelled good news for ship owners ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.51% LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.56 per MT (-3.0%) month over month and US$ 1.03 (-2.0%) week ove ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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