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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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