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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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