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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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