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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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