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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
Monday, 15 December 14
Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.74%) closed at US$ 51.45 on 12 December month over ...
Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
Friday, 12 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 3.4% W/E DECEMBER 6
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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