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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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